By ATN News / Soufan Center
New York: In the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the delicate balance between the United States and Iran has come under increasing strain. Despite both nations expressing a desire to avoid direct conflict, Iran's strategic moves to influence the situation in Gaza have brought it closer to potential armed confrontation with Washington.
Over the decades, Iran has fostered alliances with like-minded Shia Muslim armed groups, creating a region-wide "axis of resistance." This enables Iran to exert influence across the region while maintaining a level of deniability, avoiding direct conflict with the technologically superior U.S. armed forces. The post-October 7 environment has seen Iran's support for attacks by its allies, such as the Houthi movement in Yemen, prompting U.S. leaders to view Iran as a threat to vital U.S. interests.
As of mid-January, Iran appears to be taking more direct actions to support its allies and counter U.S. efforts to limit the conflict to Gaza. Iran continues to resupply Hezbollah amid escalating tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border and provides direct support to the Houthi movement in Yemen, targeting U.S. and allied naval vessels. The U.S.-led strike on Houthi targets on January 11, supported by UK forces and others, reflects the increasing pressure on U.S. leaders to respond forcefully to Houthi attacks.
The Houthi attacks, traced back to Iranian-supplied weaponry, have persisted despite warnings and strikes by the international coalition. The ongoing conflict raises the specter of further direct involvement by Iran, risking unplanned clashes with U.S. forces and hindering any chance of a resolution to the internal conflict in Yemen.
Adding to the tensions, Iran's recent attacks on global commerce, including the armed drone strike on the Chem Pluto in the Indian Ocean and the seizure of the Suez Rajan in the Gulf of Oman, have raised concerns. The U.S. military attributes these attacks to Iran, potentially meeting criteria for an armed response if escalated further.
Despite the perceived threat to U.S. and Western interests, caution persists in Washington regarding armed conflict with Iran. The potential for a military strike, even a limited one, carries significant risks, including regional escalation, support from Iran's allies, and financial and diplomatic costs.
The absence of diplomatic talks between Iran and the U.S. or its European allies, coupled with the focus of major Arab states on the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas war, leaves few avenues for de-escalation. Global mediators lack substantial leverage, emphasizing the precarious nature of the current geopolitical landscape.
While both the United States and Iran express awareness of the consequences of all-out warfare, the path forward remains uncertain as tensions persist, and both nations continue to stand by their allies, grappling with the intricate web of regional conflicts.