UNGA81: A World on Edge Comes to the UN
By Ahmed Fathi
UNHQ, New York: As the countdown to the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA81) enters its final days, New York is gearing up for what may be one of the most highly tense high-level weeks in recent memory.
Dozens of presidents, prime ministers, and monarchs are anticipated to participate in the General Debate, which begins on 22 September, although the list of attendees is still flexible and late changes are possible.
What is already obvious, however, is that UNGA81 will be held against a backdrop of extraordinary volatility.
The U.S.-Iran war, ongoing Middle East turmoil, the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Palestinian tension, and increasing global economic strain are expected to dominate public statements and covert diplomacy.
The first day can set the tone for the whole week.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is scheduled to offer the usual opening speech to the nation, followed by U.S. President Donald Trump, whose message is likely to become a political reference point for much of the gathering.
Iran, Israel, Ukraine, China, global security, and the increasingly tangled relationship between Washington and the United Nations itself are expected to be among the topics Trump may touch on.
His appearance is likely to be followed by a cluster of leaders of countries directly affected by the current Middle East crisis, including Jordan's King Abdullah II, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Qatar's Emir Sheik Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
The sequence might convert the first morning into something close to an emergency diplomatic discussion on the direction of the area.
French President Emmanuel Macron is also scheduled to address the opening day, with France set to keep a visible role on the Israeli-Palestinian problem and larger European security questions.
Then attention might turn rapidly to Iran.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has been tentatively linked to the September 23 session, but it was unclear whether he will be physically there. If he does, his speech — likely a day after Trump’s — might be among the most carefully watched moments of the General Assembly.
If he doesn't show, that in and of itself might be a diplomatic issue, given the ongoing wrangling over U.S. sanctions on Iranian officials.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also is slated to attend, and talking about a possible meeting with Trump is sure to generate as much attention as his formal presentation.
For Ukraine the question is no longer just whether foreign backing endures. Increasingly, it’s whether Washington and Kyiv are unified on how the war should end and on what terms.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to speak to the Assembly on September 24 in what might be one of the week’s more controversial visits.
He is expected to speak about Iran, Gaza, and Israel’s security doctrine and relations with Washington, but protests and/or diplomatic walkouts might again make his appearance a significant television moment.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is also expected to attend, though it is unclear if he will be able to fly to New York amid reports of continued U.S. visa restrictions.
The issue might raise awkward concerns about what Washington’s obligations are as a host country to the United Nations.
Syria too will be watched intently.
Syria’s significant political shift is expected to bring President Ahmed al-Sharaa back to the General Assembly. This time the question could not be whether the new Syrian leadership is accepted, but rather where Damascus wants to position itself between Washington, Moscow, Ankara, the Gulf, and Israel.
The projected Sisi attendance on opening day comes at a particularly difficult time for Egypt.
Simultaneously, Egypt is grappling with the effects from the Gaza war, disturbances in the Red Sea, pressure on Suez Canal income, and the wider economic impact of regional strife.
So the language Cairo selects could matter.
Will Egypt stick to the usual diplomatic formulas, or will Sisi more explicitly link the wars in the region to the economic cost being paid by nations and populations far from the battlefield?
Other leaders expected or strongly indicated to attend include Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Kenyan President William Ruto, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi, and Argentine President Javier Milei.
A few important omissions could be equally significant.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia is unlikely to be in New York. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also unlikely to attend, with Beijing expecting to send a senior representative. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had appeared on earlier draft itineraries, now also looks unlikely to come in person.
The exclusions underscore a more profound truth about this year’s gathering.
UNGA81 could draw more than a hundred leaders to New York, but some of the most influential power centers in the international system may still choose to do their diplomacy elsewhere.
But beyond the speeches, another struggle is already beginning to take shape: the race to succeed Secretary-General António Guterres.
That issue may not be front and center in the news, but it might be front and center in many private conversations.
The key window for now may be September 22-24, when Trump, Middle Eastern leaders, Zelenskyy, Netanyahu, Macron, Sisi, Erdoğan, and possibly Pezeshkian converge in New York.
UNGA81 may therefore be less about the usual language of international collaboration and more about whether diplomacy can yet keep pace with a world more and more defined by war, economic pressure, Erdoğan, and geopolitical rivalry.