Loyalty or Leverage? Gulf States Revisit Their Bet as Trump Turns on Musk

An analysis drawn from America First, The World Divided: Trump 2.0 Influence

Power, Profit, and Politics: As Trump clashes with Musk, Gulf leaders watch—and weigh their next move.

By Ahmed Fathi

New York, NY: When Elon Musk joined President Donald Trump on a high-profile tour of the Gulf just weeks ago, the message was unmistakable: the United States was reasserting its dominance in the tech and innovation race—and the Gulf states were not just audience members, but co-investors.

In Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, Musk was treated like visiting royalty. Tesla’s Optimus robots were unveiled. Starlink’s future in the region was teased. Conversations about AI, infrastructure, and Mars colonization flowed freely in gold-draped conference rooms.

But now, after Trump’s public and punishing break with Musk—complete with threats to cut off federal contracts and revoking what he called “billions and billions” in support—the Gulf finds itself in an unenviable position: **stuck between a tech visionary and a political kingmaker.

The Gulf’s Strategic Dilemma

As I detailed in *America First, The World Divided > *“In the post-globalization era, Gulf states learned to speak the language of both capital and loyalty. Their leverage came not from choosing sides, but from knowing when not to.”* > (*Chapter 10: America First Goes Global*, p. 209)

But this time, neutrality may not be an option. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are all deeply invested in the future economy: AI cities, space programs, autonomous transportation, digital infrastructure. Musk is a central figure in those ambitions. But Donald Trump—back in office and as transactional as ever—represents access to U.S. weapons, diplomatic cover, and political patronage.

And as I warned in *Chapter 7: Loyalty as Leverage*: > *“Under Trump 2.0, foreign partnerships are tested not by treaties but by fealty. Personal alignment with the president is the true cost of admission.”*> (p. 157)

Gulf States' Engagements with Musk

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)

Saudi Arabia: ** Recent developments indicate a strengthening relationship between Tesla and Saudi Arabia. In April 2025, Tesla officially launched its operations in the kingdom, opening a flagship store in Riyadh, signaling mended ties between Elon Musk and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, during a trip with President Trump to the Middle East in May 2025, Musk announced that Saudi Arabia had approved the use of SpaceX's Starlink satellite service for aviation and maritime applications.

Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

Qatar: Elon Musk met with the chairman of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, signaling potential investment discussions. The meeting preceded Musk’s participation in the 2025 Qatar Economic Forum, highlighting Gulf states’ growing influence in tech and green energy. Tesla continues to navigate competitive pressures while expanding its global footprint, with Middle Eastern investors playing a key role.

U.A.E. President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ)

United Arab Emirates (UAE): The UAE has been strengthening its partnerships with U.S. tech giants for its national AI initiatives. The "Stargate UAE" project, announced in May 2025, is a collaboration between Emirati firm G42 and U.S. companies including Nvidia, OpenAI, Cisco, Oracle, and Japan's SoftBank, aiming to build one of the world's largest AI data campuses. This move aligns with the UAE's strategy to bolster its AI capabilities through alliances with established U.S. technology firms.

Possible Strategic Pathways Forward

For Gulf Leaders:

Maintain Balanced Engagements: Continue fostering relationships with both U.S. political leadership and innovative tech entrepreneurs like Musk, ensuring national interests are safeguarded.

Diversify Partnerships: Expand collaborations beyond singular entities to include a broader range of tech firms, mitigating risks associated with geopolitical shifts.

For Elon Musk:

Diplomatic Outreach: Engage in dialogue with U.S. political figures to address concerns and reaffirm commitments to national interests.

Strengthen Global Alliances: Further develop international partnerships to diversify business interests and reduce dependency on any single market or political climate.

Bottomline: Navigating Complex Alliances

The Trump–Musk fallout is more than a personality clash; it is a geopolitical stress test. For Gulf leaders, the choice is not about who is right—but who holds more sway. And as of now, **Trump remains the gatekeeper to Washington’s favor**, arms deals, and international credibility.

> *“In Trump’s world,”* I wrote in *Chapter 9*, *“those who defy him may survive—but they never thrive.” * (p. 193)

Musk may still have the machines, the mind, and the money. But without political clearance from the man in the White House, his Middle East chapter may quietly close before it ever fully began.

** Ahmed Fathi is a United Nations correspondent, global affairs analyst, and author of* *America First, The World Divided: Trump 2.0 Influence*. *He writes about diplomacy, multilateralism, power, perception, and the politics that shape our global future.