New York, January 13th, 2018: Unfortunately, with the Sudanese escalation against Egypt in the recent weeks around the border triangle of Halaib and Shalatin and the moral freight of the Sudanese army, which is being carried out by Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir on this subject, the question arises: Will Sudan take a military action against Egypt?
Historically, since the separation from Egypt in 1953, successive Sudanese governments have raised the issue of Halaib and Shalatin in order to draw the attention of the Sudanese people to a foreign crisis and avoid focusing on the series of successive failures in domestic politics.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi also benefits from this escalation presented by al-Bashir on a silver platter because he is also facing a decline in popularity and failure of his domestic policy to achieve results in the fields of political and economic reforms and a sharp decline in the value of the Egyptian pound and inflation exceeding 30%, the prisons are full of political opponents from all political factions, and the authority of the security services is brutalized to make Egypt a police state and to promote the theory of global conspiracy against Egypt from all countries and all the leaders of the world.
Apart from the Egyptian paranoia and the oppression complex from all the countries of the world, including the Sudan and the belief of the Egyptians that they are always in force and the paranoia of the president of Sisi, who is reported to demonstrate the symptoms of Megalomania, we must evaluate the possibilities of military escalation in light of the analysis of the balance of power, As a quick example:
- The total size of the army working in Egypt is 454,250 thousand soldiers and officers and in Sudan is 177,150 thousand soldiers and officers.
- The total size of the air force in Egypt 1132 aircraft, including 384 for the training of new pilots, and in Sudan the size of the air force is 181 aircraft, including 6 aircraft for training.
- The total size of the tanks in Egypt is 4110 and in Sudan is only 360 tanks.
- The total size of armored combat vehicles in Egypt is 13,949 vehicles and in Sudan is only 415 vehicles.
- The total amount of self-propelled artillery in Egypt is 889, in Sudan it is only 16, and the heavy artillery towed in Egypt is 2,360 guns and in Sudan only 750
- The total size of the naval force in Egypt is 319 units of different sizes and in Sudan only 18 units
Sudan's threat of military action against Egypt is a madness, but as in this analysis, the Sudanese president does not intend to engage in a war against Egypt, but only by fabricating a mock war so that he can break up his strong opposition within Sudan, which is on the verge of famine and deterioration of the economic situation to the extent of the mobilization of revolutionary forces and the opposition street against him.
Therefore, it is not expected that the issue will develop into more than a mutual barking battle for dogs in an open desert arena, and until one team will tire of the other, but military action is doubtful unless Bashir decides to commit suicide.